Report warns London could see 'lost decade' of employment with hard Brexit

Sunday, 14 Jan, 2018

According to the BBC, Tories on the London Assembly, an elected body which scrutinizes the mayor, said: "Sadiq Khan, a well-known Remainer and advocate of Project Fear, has simply produced a continuation of his widely publicized anti-Brexit views". And then came a report from recruitment firm Morgan McKinley claiming that London finance job vacancies fell 37% year-on-year in December, plus a Cambridge study warning that 87,000 fewer jobs will be created in London in the event of a "hard Brexit".

"It's astonishing that the government has failed to do any proper impact assessments on what Brexit could mean for our economy".

LabourList has more readers than ever before - but we need your support. The capital's economic output would be 2 percent lower in 2030 than what would be expected under a "soft Brexit".

"This reflects that London has a higher concentration of higher-value sectors, which are able to recover from economic shocks more quickly".

Both the London mayor and Cambridge Econometrics admit that this analysis is not a precise forecast of what will happen.

The study, carried out by Cambridge Econometrics, said economic output across Britain could be around 3 percent lower by 2030 than if the United Kingdom were to remain within the single market and customs union - which allows the free movement of goods, people, capital and services between the member states.

Germany Brexit
GETTYGerman car manufacturers could be hit by huge losses after Brexit

It says a "no deal" hard Brexit could lead to a "lost decade or longer" of significantly lower growth.

The study looked at the potential impact of five Brexit-related scenarios on the country and its capital in nine key sectors of the economy.

"Leaving the European Union will come at a cost and, with many businesses about to make decisions about where they will invest and grow, it's time the government stopped its ministerial reshuffling and internal politicking and instead set out a coherent plan for continued market access and tariff-free trade with Europe".

Mr Khan is warning that with just 10 months to go, time is running out.

In response, UK International Trade Secretary Liam Fox called the report "anything other than cataclysmic".

The firm, which has offices in Brussels, is managed by Philip Summerton, who regularly retweets European Union loyalists such as Chuka Umunna MP and former Remain campaign director Will Straw. "I don't believe that we will necessarily lose our share of market".